Primary Elections and Fall Campaigns

Today is primary election day in Washington State. Mail in ballots are used by 70% of the voters here. There were no hot primary contests on my ballot. After many years of an open primary ballot, where we could vote for candidates regardless of party, Washington has now been required by Court ruling to require primary voters to only vote for partisan candidates of one party.

There have been some interesting primaries around the country, starting with Tom DeLay being embarrassed by his poor showing in Texas. Joe Lieberman was defeated in Connecticut, the Republican party assisted moderate Lincoln Chafee to victory over an unelectable conservative in Rhode Island, and Hilary Clinton won 83% of the Democratic vote in her New York primary. DeLay is now finished with elected politics, Lieberman is running as an independent, Chafee will be running to remain a Republican moderate in the Senate and Hilary is positioning herself for a strong shot at the Presidential nomination.

Though all politics may be local, the strong disapproval ratings of the Bush Presidency in the areas of foreign affairs, the middle east, Iraq, Katrina and the economy and energy situation all work against Republican incumbents seeking re-election. But voters are not likely to vote out a local incumbent simply to help the other party gain power nationally. Incumbents know that, and to keep voters on their side they use the fact that their seniority can bring bacon home to the local people. Republicans, led by the Bush team, continue to use their only hopeful campaign card, arguing that Bush has done well in the so-called War on Terror, and that Republicans in general are more dependable in fighting terrorism.

Democrats make a mistake, as Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid did recently, when they argue that the War in Iraq is not part of the fight against terror. All Democrats should say about terror is that the Republicans have not done enough to protect America and that our homeland security is full of unplugged holes and that we cannot expect to continue to go unharmed at home with such security breaches and with Osama still at large after five years of Republicans in charge. Then Democrats should quickly turn to all the other issues, all losers for Republicans: American prestige at an all time low, the middle east in the most turmoil in recent memory, Iraq a quagmire of civil war, New Orleans still a mess well into a new hurricane season, the economy in a discouraged state and gas prices at record highs with no energy policy in sight other than endangering the environment to let oil companies aceess more gas to sell at exorbitant prices.

My Congressional district is one that is up for grabs. The one term Republican incumbent may be vulnerable. The female Democratic challenger has mailed ads criticizing the Iraq fiasco while documenting her own patriotism, and attacking the Republicans on doing nothing to tax windfall profits of oil companies which charge record pump prices. She will need to continue this approach and move it into diret challenges to the voting record of the incumbent in support of the failed policies of the Bush administration. He has an 85% record of agreement with Bush and she should hammer that he is 85% in favor of the failed Bush policies and should be voted out.

Even if Democrats fail to win the house, which is where their best chance lies, Congress is moving farther away from the Republican right on many issues, with Republican moderates now feeling quite free to stick to their positions in spite of pressure from the White House and Republican Congressional leaders. The most exciting race of all will take a giant stride in 50 days, after the November elections, when the race for the White House will heat up tremendously.