October Surprise

In American politics, “October Surprise” is usually applied to a Presidential election, but this non-Presidential October has already had about a surprise a day - all to the deserved detriment of George Bush and the Republican party.

The release of the National Intelligence Estimate criticizing the conduct of the occupation of Iraq has prompted many top line generals who were involved and are now safely retired to come out and contradict the Bush lie about the generals being given all the troops they requested. The Dr. Strangelove clone Rumsfeld is the target of their most vehement shots, and his intransigent denials of the reality of the Iraq fiasco, mirroring his commander George, are seen by the majority of Americans as hitting the bulls eye.

Bob Woodward’s third book in his Bush trilogy, “State of Denial”, strikes such a blow to the Bush administration, one has to suspect the two earlier tomes were designed to set Bush up for a sucker punch. Bush himself may have seen it coming, since he declined to give Woodward an interview for the third book, but other administration sources seem to have willingly enabled the shot.

The Abramoff corruption scandal may not be a top story, but it continues to resonate in the background. Another top House Republican, part of the “reform crop” elected in 1994, Bob Ney of Ohio, has copped a plea to avoid having to stand trial.

The latest Republican scandal, over Congressman Mark Foley of Florida, may be the one to have the most impact on the election. We probably should not be surprised about that, since it involves a sexual hypocrite. Like most Americans, I did not know who Foley was. I don’t know to what extent Foley’s homosexuality was closeted, but if it was, that is not the concern. [I was slow coming to the story, so when I heard Foley was pursuing a teenage page from Louisiana, my initial reaction was that she was probably one of those uniquely Louisianan beauties]. The hypocrisy is that this man was a Congressional crusader against internet predators.

The House Republican leadership’s mis-handling of the Foley matter, as with most scandals, may prove to be more devastating politically than the initial offense. Incompetence was definitely involved, merely telling a possible predator to cease contact instead of checking further to see if more was involved. Keeping it quiet seems to have been the top priority, possibly abetted by a generous Foley contribution to Republican campaign coffers. Foley has skedaddled into hiding at an alcohol rehab clinic, blaming a previously unknown problem with booze rather than a predisposition to pedophilia. Whether there was an actual coverup is under investigation, though there can be minimal difference between quickly turning a blind eye and knowingly hiding what has been seen. Speaker Hastert is under great fire, which puts Republicans in a pre-election dilemma, whether to take his head with resulting party embarrassment, or to stall it out and add fuel to the coverup fire.

Hypocrisy comes easier to Republicans than Democrats. Claiming personal moral superiority and taking a macho stance against evildoers raises the claimant to greater heights from which to fall. Sometimes those who shout the loudest condemnation and urge the greatest attacks are trying to distract attention from their own secret guilt and fear. Foley is the latest in a string of Republican moral hypocrites. Most all the chickenhawks never wore a military uniform, though Bush himself occasionally strutted in the one that was finagled for him to avoid serving in Vietnam and he continues to wear uniform jackets for campaign appearances.

October is young and there are six days in November before the election, so more surprises may be forthcoming. Unlike the classic pre-election political surprise which a candidate wraps and opens for the gain of the candidate, this year’s packages so far have been garbage wrapped by the Republicans themselves who hid them in the closet, where the media has found and opened them. I expect the Rove-led scoundrels have had great trouble finding anything to wrap and proudly open, so they will try to revert to what they are best at, wrapping garbage, and trying to blame it on the Democrats.