Sense from Seattle

Common sense thoughts on life and current affairs by a Seattle area sexagenarian, drawing on personal experience, years of learning as a counselor to thousands of families and an innate passion for informed knowledge, to uniquely express sensible, thoughtful, honest and independent views.

Saturday, August 11, 2007

2008 Republican Senatorial Vulnerabilities

In the 2008 election, 33 U.S. Senate seats will be voted on, plus one special election in Wyoming to replace the incumbent Republican who died earlier this year. One Republican Senator, Allard of CO is not running for re-election; he was elected in 2002 with only 51% of the vote. In all, 22 seats, presently held by Republicans are up for grabs. They are shown in Red on the map above. Which ones are vulnerable, giving hope for Democrats to achieve a filibuster free Congress?

The CO seat is a definite prospect. The special election in WY has no elected incumbent, but the State usually goes Republican. Here are some prospects to keep an eye on, the Republican incumbents who received the smallest winning percentages in their 2002 election:

MN - Coleman -50%
CO - Allard retiring - 51%
NH - Sununu - 51%
OK - Inhofe 52%
GA - Chambliss - 53%
NC - Dole - 54%
SC - Graham - 54%
TN - Alexander - 54%
TX - Cornyn - 55%
OR - Smith - 56%

If the mood of the country still favors the Democrats at election time, and if strong candidates are fielded to challenge for these seats, there is hope. Some of the 12 Democrats up for Senate re-election, shown in blue on the map, also had slim margins in their 2002 wins, but a pro-Democrat mood favors them. Death or retirements before the election could complicate the picture, but for now, these are the contests to watch.


Blogger Tom Blake said...

The disclosure that Republican Senator Larry Craig pleaded guilty in Minneapolis in August to a misdemeanor charge of making a homosexual advance in a public restroom at the airport, may possibly throw his seat open, as he is up for re-election in 2008 and may decide not to run again. Idaho is pretty strong Republican turf however.

8:12 PM  

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