My Prediction on the Election

The Sense article of this same name from a few days before the 2004 election retains much relevancy for this 2008 election, but there are important differences between the two contests.

In the 2004 election, Bush was given credit for 50.7% of the popular vote (he called it a mandate) to 48.3% for Kerry. But the electoral vote total of 286 to 251 could have been reversed by a change in the 20 electoral votes from Ohio, which Bush was credited with winning by 2%. I am not saying Bush won, because I believe Republican voter suppression of primarily black voters in Ohio reversed what should have been the true outcome. Consider that one black voter out of one hundred who gave up standing in line or who otherwise was prevented from having a validated vote, and one white voter out of a hundred who was "facilitated" by a short line or was otherwise aided could have made the difference.

This year the most objective polls all agree Obama has the edge nationally and in particular has convincing leads in the battleground states. He is projected to win the popular vote by maybe five points, and the electoral vote is expected to go his way quite handily. However, with a black candidate for the first time in history, pollsters agree they are not sure of the undisclosed racial attitudes of voters.

I predict the polls will be fairly accurate and there will be no empirical confirmation of any racial aspect lowering the actual votes for Obama. This may be a case of two inaccuracies making a correct answer, because silent affirmative action voters may cancel out silent anti-black voters. Most people who would not vote for a black probably vote Republican anyway. There are certainly some senior citizen white Democrats who have trouble voting for a black, but many will end up doing so because of the economy, and some may just sit this one out. Hispanics and Asians may harbor some prejudice against blacks or some backlash fear of black affirmative action under a black President, but most Hispanic values are consistent with Democratic values and the Asian vote does not seem to be significantly large enough in any strategic geographic area and the Obama connection with Indnesia could have appeal to some Asian voters.

Some silent voter factors should work in the favor of Obama. Some voters do worry about the age and health of McCain and about his mentality and temperament. The lack of Palin qualifications and the emphasis on her looks probably affects many more voters than say so, particularly women.

As in 2004, turnout is all important, particularly with new and young voters. Early voting is setting records and is heavily Democratic, especially blacks and young people. Young voters faded in 2004, but Obama is much more appealing to them than was Kerry, particularly given the stark contrast of the elderly McCain. Demographics favor Democrats, as the country grows less white and people of color take up residence in new areas. The Republican Party is relatively shrinking with the white population and the Republican exclusive mentality of rural and small town white America.

Even Republicans seem to agree Congress will gain more Democrats. It is not likely the Democrats will get the 60 needed in the Senate to block filibuters, but in 2006 it did not seem likely they would get a Senate majority, which they did. Republican moderates are losing, just as Democratic moderates are gaining numbers. This moves Congress toward the progressive end and leaves many of the remaining Republicans marginalized, since they are more interested in obstructing than in working with moderates and progressives. Even with 40 plus Republicans in the Senate, there may be hope to peel one or two away to avoid filibuster on any given issue.

To put numbers on it, I'll say 52-46 Obama on the popular vote and Obama wins the electoral vote with a 50 to 100 edge.