Two Weeks from Tomorrow

Pollsters and pundits seem to unanimously agree the Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives next month. They also agree the Senate will come down to three races (Virginia, Tennessee and Missouri - all border or upper south states), of which the Democrats need to win two to gain control of the Senate.

Republicans are counting on two tactical edges in the last few days before the election, more money and more targeted get out the vote calling. The money matter is straight forward; the Republican party is committed to cutting taxes on the rich, so the rich make enormous campaign contributions to get Republicans elected. The voter targeting is another aspect of Republican hypocrisy; Republicans talk against big government and then use all its informational databases to identify voters to target.

One in five voters now cast mail ballots before election day, somewhat diminishing the impact of late breaking news. More Republicans than Democrats historically mailed early ballots, but the gap has supposedly narrowed. Factor in the unpredictable aspects of how long a new story will survive in the 24 hour news cycle, and the task of final days campaign news management becomes quite tricky. But tricky is a Karl Rove strong suit, so watch to see if anything comes out of his sleeves in the next two weeks. The Republican National Committee has already played the race card in the Tennessee Senate race against Harold Ford, Jr. (an African-American), running an attack ad which includes a blonde white seductress type personally soliciting a liaison with Ford. The ad is supposedly justified because Ford attended a Playboy sponsored party at an NFL game.

Candidates always consider the election in which they are running as the most important one in many years. Democrats smell victory, which has largely escaped them in Congressional elections for at least a dozen years, so this election is very important to them. Some Republicans, expecting defeat, are downplaying the importance of the Democrats getting any Congressional power, since Bush will have the veto power, which he finally showed he will use (shooting down stem cell research).

This election is important for the American people to show we still believe the government belongs to us, not to those who hold office. A large turnout, especially of independents, and a significant rejection of Republican incumbents will confirm that belief.

The importance of the election to Democrats will be measured by what they do with the gains they make. The public majority seems to agree with Democrats on many economic issues (e.g. the need to raise the Federal minimum wage), but will be waiting to see how Democrats use any power they win. Nancy Pelosi is right to rule out any talk of a Bush impeachment as a waste of time and energy better spent on other matters. Congressional oversight and investigation of Bush administration secret practices and failures will be welcomed by the public, if conducted in a legitimate manner instead of as grandstanding attacks. But most appealing will be a turn of Congress back in the direction of more bipartisan efforts to reach agreement on the facts of the problems we face and open and honest discussion of varying opinions on how the problems might be solved. Compromise and consensus decision making would do much to restore our faith in American government and would also set a much better example for the Iraqi government than the one they have been getting from the Bush administration and Republican controlled Congress.

This election also marks the beginning of the fourth quarter of the Bush Administration. Except for his base voters, Bush is now seen as an expensive failure in the eyes of the electorate. He is a lame duck President and a lame duck Republican. America is looking forward to him disappearing from the stage, and over the next two years we will be looking for candidates to replace him. The Democrats need to come up with someone more appealing than Gore and Kerry, someone capable of delivering the clear victory they each should have won over Bush. The Republicans have not offered voters much choice. Since Reagan-Bush I (with Bush I bounced out in 1992, in favor of the charismatic moderate Republican in Democrat clothing Bill Clinton), they have only offered the throw away Dole and the flop Bush II. That a woman, Hilary, and an African-American, Obama, are creating the most buzz may signify Americans are looking for someone truly different.