Change Is on the Way

Last year, all the political talk was just that - talk. With the arrival of 2008, the talk has turned to action, first with the Iowa caucuses and tomorrow with the New Hampshire Primary. Change seems to be the buzzword - out with the old and in with the new. By this time next year Bush will be heading out the door - and setting an all time record for Presidential pardons. Most voters want to turn the reins over to a Democrat. Hillary was the front runner for the past year, but the Iowa results confirmed that voter reluctance over Hillary personally and over the deja vu feeling of having another Clinton Presidency can translate into a win for Obama. Polls show he may win in New Hampshire also.

On the personal level, after a Christmas break from blogging, but not from following the campaigns, I think I feel like a lot of the Democratic faithful. There is an excitement of hopefulness about seeing an up and comer defeat an established power holder (reminiscent of JFK beating LBJ in 1960). But there is also a tinge of concern about the electability of Obama, because of his lack of experience on the big stage. Obama's African-American heritage pulls diversely. Will voters consider his racial heritage in making their decisions, and if so, will it be considered a positive or a negative? Having a father from Africa makes Barack's story different from that of most African-Americans, but his life experiences as an American of mixed race are relevant to all Americans of color, and the absence of his father from his upbringing is a familiar experience to many people regardless of color. His story of rising from a childhood of confusion and little promise to a real possibility of becoming President is as idealistically American as it gets.

Hillary suddenly has found herself running from behind. The perception of inevitability has been shattered and her tactics now are changing to more negative, which is exactly what voters are trying to put in the past. Obama's positive message of hope and change sounds especially good coming from the position of front runner. The Iowa caucuses may not be demographically representative of America, but they definitely affect campaign bubbles, popping some, deflating others and raising a few to new heights.

Using electability as a criterion for nomination is risky, especially when it is not clear who the opponent will be. The Republicans are in shambles. Iowa chose the likeable preacher. New Hampshire may go for the old maverick. The handsome Mormon spent the most by far but doesn't have much to show for it. Mayor 9/11 is waiting like a snake in the grass for Super Tuesday. Voters don't seem to care much who the Republicans choose. Attendance at the Iowa Democratic caucuses was overwhelming, while Republican attendance was mediocre. Against any of the Republicans, Obama should be seen as the most hopeful agent of change and bi-partisanship. On the issues, his positions are actually fairly mainstream, so the change would be to go away from the greedy, dictatorial aberrations of the Bush administration. Bush fraudulently ran as a "uniter, not a divider", all the while engaging in divisive rhetoric. By contrast, Obama speaks in terms of inclusion and projects a genuine willingness to work not only with those who agree with him but also with those of opposing views.

When this blog started during the 2004 campaign, there was a fair amount of reader input on the election prospects. It would be interesting during this 2008 campaign to hear from you few remaining readers. What are your thoughts on the candidates?