Sense from Seattle

Common sense thoughts on life and current affairs by a Seattle area sexagenarian, drawing on personal experience, years of learning as a counselor to thousands of families and an innate passion for informed knowledge, to uniquely express sensible, thoughtful, honest and independent views.

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

What Does Hillary Want?


Now that Barack Obama has amassed the requisite number of delegates to be the Democratic Presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton still refuses to go away. Everyone is speculating about what she wants. Her ultimate desire has been clear all along; she wants to be President. But now that she has failed to win this nomination, what are her immediate goals?

Hillary wants money, power and prestige. She has huge campaign debts she wants someone else to pay. She wants to parlay the votes she got into political power. And she wants the prestige of being considered an indispensable asset because she came so close to winning the nomination.

The money issue should be easy to solve, since so many people are anxious to part with their cash to help elect a Democrat President, even if it means helping pay the second place Democrat finisher.

Hillary has power, based on the fact she has high roller contributors and some fiercely loyal voters - loyal that is to Hillary, not necessarily to the Democratic Party, the need of the country to have a Democrat President, or the career of any other Democrat woman politician. Her claims of greater electability are not borne out by the polls. Her contention she won the most popular vote is contrived. After Super Tuesday burst her balloon, she was trounced in the contest for super delegates.

The fact that Hillary is her own number one cheerleader shows how far her prestige has fallen. Going into the primary campaign she was a 30 point favorite. After Super Tuesday, it seemed quite likely she was going to lose. The fact she survived and continued to battle and win some electoral contests did not help her prestige. Her initial appeal of invincible inevitability ended up becoming the appeal of a person claiming to be falsely labeled a loser. Granted, she does have her base, mostly older women,less educated white males and Hispanics, but the image she played on in the last half of the campaign was of the downtrodden. Many Americans root for the underdog and bet on losers they hope will turn out to be the next Seabiscuit. Hillary ended up tapping into those sentiments when it was clear she was on the ropes. At the same time, some support for Obama eased up so as not to alienate Hillary supporters by running up the score on her. If the primary season could be replayed, with voters knowing what they know now, I think Obama would beat Clinton by a greater margin.

Hillary cannot be President in 2009, barring the horror she managed to work in to the mix by her reference to Bobby Kennedy in 1968. If McCain wins or if Obama in any way tanks in his first term, Hillary will run again in four years. If Obama has a good eight year run, Hillary will be there in 2016. So is she using her power and prestige to try for the VP spot? Sure she is. As VP, if Obama loses or falters in his term, she will be saying I told you so and offering herself as the savior. And if he makes eight, she will be the heir apparent. Will she be able to finagle Obama into giving her the spot? Not unless he is a fraud, a nut or a masochist.

Hillary has a tricky hand to play now. She has to shift from candidate to supporter, offering to deliver her donors and voters, while holding on to some of her cards and trying to play some of Obama's. She'll want him to let her appear to be a significant player, even though she doesn't get the VP nod. This will probably mean letting her have input on the VP choice and maybe accepting one of her supporters for the spot. It won't be a woman, because Hillary doesn't want any challengers for her monopoly, having been careful throughout her career not to mentor any women who could rise to become competitors.

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